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Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
J.D. Vance 87¢
Ted Cruz 82¢
Ron DeSantis 66¢
Marco Rubio 50¢
Thomas Massie 49¢
Rand Paul 46¢
Marjorie Taylor Greene 39¢
Glenn Youngkin 39¢
Brian Kemp 37¢
Gregory Bovino 31¢
Josh Hawley 30¢
Tulsi Gabbard 31¢
Donald J. Trump Jr. 28¢
Tucker Carlson 27¢
Vivek Ramaswamy 26¢
John McEntee 26¢
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 27¢
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 25¢
Steve Bannon 24¢
Nikki Haley 24¢
Pete Hegseth 24¢
Greg Abbott 22¢
Byron Donalds 21¢
Spencer Pratt 18¢

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown, and 11 contracts trading under a cent are left off. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 03:14:24 UTC.

Your call

The market says 87%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

87%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 21 December 2025, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSept J.D. Vance 84.5 Ted Cruz 82 Ron DeSantis 65

Over this window Ted Cruz went from 66.5 to 82, a move of 15.5 points toward happening.

The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Sat, 01 Jan 2028 15:00:00 UTC
Resolution, for the J.D. Vance contract
If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KX2028RRUN-28

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