just now · prices from Kalshi
Two unrelated things the market prices at exactly the same number. Nobody sat down and decided these were equally plausible. Thousands of people betting on completely separate questions arrived here independently, which is either a useful calibration or a joke about the human race, and most days it is both.
A probability on its own is almost impossible to feel. Nobody has a reliable intuition for what 23% means. But everyone has an intuition for whether two specific things are equally likely, and disagreeing with a pairing is the fastest way to discover you disagree with a price. Markets about a named person coming to harm are excluded from this page, always, for reasons on the disclosure page.