Prediction markets have a price for the next Pope, a second American civil war, whether two Starships dock, and roughly fourteen thousand other things. Those prices move every day and then vanish: the exchanges drop a contract from the interface the moment it settles. We write them all down, every day, and keep them somewhere you can link to.
The name is the method. Add up what it costs to back every outcome and the total comes to more than 100%. That overshoot is the house's cut, and it is also the most honest confidence reading there is: a tight book means the market is sure, a fat one means nobody has any idea and is being charged handsomely for the privilege. We print it next to every price.
Start with Right Now, which is what the exchange started taking bets on this week and what has moved since yesterday. Then The Ten for today in ninety seconds, or The Ladder, which puts every market on one scale and lets you find out what the world considers exactly as likely as a recession.
Loading today's prices.
Every game priced in more than one place. The dots show what each site thinks the favourite's chances are, and the right-hand column shows where that bet is cheapest right now, whether that is an exchange or a sportsbook. Prices are in cents on the dollar: 45¢ means you pay 45 cents to win a dollar. Cheaper is better. Rows marked quiet have almost no money in them, so the gap matters less than it looks.
Some of the outbound links on this board earn us a commission. Position on this page is decided by price and nothing else, and no venue can pay to move up it. If the cheapest price is somewhere that pays us nothing, that is what we print.
The first thing the numbers say, and it is not the flattering answer: the biggest disagreements are almost all in markets where hardly anyone is betting.
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Which points somewhere more interesting than hunting for free money. If the busy markets mostly agree, the question worth asking is not who has it wrong. It is who moves first, and who turns out to be right. That is a scoreboard, and it is the thing we are building.
The board covers ball games. This covers everything else the same markets price: who takes the House, where rates land, who wins Best Picture, who reaches the moon next. Ranked by the money actually standing behind each one, because a probability nobody has bet on is just an opinion with a percent sign.
A sportsbook keeps somewhere between four and six cents of every dollar on a simple two-way bet. An exchange like Kalshi or Polymarket keeps a small fraction of that, because it is not betting against you. It is renting you a seat and taking a slice of the trade. That gap has been true for years. What is new is how many people finally noticed.
The interesting part is not that exchanges are cheaper. It is what happens to a price when the person quoting it does not care who wins…
The empty-market mirage. Why the biggest disagreements on this site are usually the least useful ones, and what to watch instead.
The fine print on how bets settle. Two sites, one game, and two different definitions of what actually happened. This is where real money quietly disappears.
What we get paid for. Our disclosure page, in plain language, including the parts that are awkward, and what the site has actually earned so far.
The board is free because it is paid for by the links on it, and those are ranked by price rather than by who pays us. One list, one email address: the daily email, and first access to Pro when it opens.
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