Every market worth watching today, on one scale. Top of the ladder is
what the market treats as done. The bottom is what it treats as fantasy. The
interesting part is the middle, and the interesting part of the middle is who
you find standing next to whom.
Live mid prices from Kalshi. The dot is the price. The soft bar
through it is the bid-ask spread, so a fat bar is a market nobody is confident
enough to quote tightly, up to a cap so one wide quote cannot draw a bar down
half the chart. Dots run cold to hot with the price: blue at the bottom where
the market is saying no, pink at the top where it is saying yes, grey through
the middle where it does not know. A pale ring means the price moved at least
three points today. Flat grey dots are markets we cover but do not promote,
which is explained on the disclosure page.
The same numbers, as a table
A chart nobody can read is decoration. This is the same data,
sorted the same way, for anyone who would rather have it plainly.
One colour axis runs through the whole site. Blue means no, and
down. Pink means yes, and up. Grey in the middle is a genuine coin flip, which
is why the dials go cold at the bottom and hot at the top. The two columns carry
different windows and say so: the trace is the last sixty days, the arrow beside
it is today. A market that climbed for two months and slipped this morning shows
one of each, which is a fact about it rather than a contradiction.