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When will any company achieve AGI?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
Before Oct 1, 2028 90¢
Before Jul 1, 2028 91¢
Before Apr 1, 2028 90¢
Before Jan 1, 2030 81¢
Before Jan 1, 2028 83¢
Before Jan 1, 2029 85¢
Before Jan 1, 2031 91¢
Before Oct 1, 2027 65¢
Before Jul 1, 2027 54¢
Before Apr 1, 2027 30¢
Before Jan 1, 2027 24¢
Before Oct 1, 2026

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:50:33 UTC.

Your call

The market says 90%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

90%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 4 March 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 MarAprMayJunJulAugSept Before Jan 1, 2031 90 Before Jul 1, 2028 83.5 Before Apr 1, 2028 83

Over this window Before Jul 1, 2028 went from 35 to 83.5, a move of 48.5 points toward happening.

The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
The Washington Post, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox Business, MSNBC, NBC, the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, the Associated Press, Financial Times, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Axios, Politico, The Information
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Thu, 01 Oct 2026 03:59:00 UTC
Resolution, for the Before Oct 1, 2028 contract
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXAGICO-COMP

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