The Overround / Markets / Elections
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Mary Peltola, 3-6% | 28¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 0-3% | 20¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, 0-3% | 14¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 6-9% | 14¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, 3-6% | 14¢ |
| Mary Peltola, 9-12% | 10¢ |
| Mary Peltola, ≥12% | 9¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, 6-9% | 3¢ |
| Dan Sullivan, ≥12% | 2¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Wed, 23 Sep 2026 06:16:33 UTC.
Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 119%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.
The market says 28%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 2 June 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window Mary Peltola, 3-6% went from 10.5 to 22, a move of 11.5 points toward happening.
The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.