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Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
Yes 7.5¢

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:50:34 UTC.

Your call

The market says 7.5%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

7.5%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 21 December 2025, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSept Before Jan 1, 2029 7.2

Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
Library of Congress, The New York Times
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Mon, 01 Jan 2029 15:00:00 UTC
Resolution
If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXAMEND22-29

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