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Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
Florida 40¢
Maine 32¢
Ohio 11¢
Michigan 10¢
New Hampshire 4¢
Minnesota 3¢
Massachusetts 2¢
Delaware 2¢
Oregon 2¢
Colorado 2¢
Illinois 2¢
New Mexico 2¢
New Jersey 2¢
Virginia 2¢
North Carolina 2¢
Iowa 2¢
Texas 2¢

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:36:57 UTC.

The overround on this market

Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 125%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.

Your call

The market says 40%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

40%

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What settles this

Settlement source
Federal Election Commission, Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division, Delaware Department of Elections, Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, Rhode Island Board of Elections, Colorado Secretary of State, Illinois State Board of Elections, Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections, New Mexico Secretary of State, Elections Division, New Jersey Division of Elections, Virginia Department of Elections, Minnesota Secretary of State, New Hampshire Secretary of State, Michigan Secretary of State, Georgia Secretary of State, North Carolina State Board of Elections, Ohio Secretary of State, the Florida Division of Elections, Alaska Division of Elections, Iowa Secretary of State, Texas Secretary of State
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Sun, 03 Jan 2027 13:59:00 UTC
Resolution, for the Florida contract
If Florida is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXBLUESTRSEN-27JAN03

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