The Overround / Markets / Elections
Priced on Kalshi and Polymarket at the same moment. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Cheaper |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva, 0-5% | 61¢ | – | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% | 25¢ | – | |
| Lula da Silva, 5-10% | 13¢ | 16¢ | Kalshi |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% | 4¢ | 2.4¢ | Polymarket |
| Lula da Silva, 10-15% | 2¢ | 3.3¢ | Kalshi |
The two venues disagree most on Lula da Silva, 5-10%: 13¢ on Kalshi against 16¢ on Polymarket, a gap of 3¢ on the same outcome.
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. Polymarket prices are matched to this market by outcome name; where a name has no counterpart the cell is left empty rather than guessed. Prices as of Fri, 02 Oct 2026 01:09:42 UTC.
Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 111%, Polymarket's to 107%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.
The market says 61%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 24 April 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window Lula da Silva, 0-5% went from 29.5 to 57, a move of 27.5 points toward happening.
The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.