The Overround / Markets / Elections
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andy Beshear | 9¢ |
| Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 6¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff | 4.1¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg | 5.1¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff | 5¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly | 5¢ |
| Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear | 3.7¢ |
| Jon Ossoff and Gretchen Whitmer | 5¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer | 4¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg | 4¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro | 4¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and James Talarico | 4¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Elissa Slotkin | 4¢ |
| Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3.2¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear | 3¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore | 3¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mark Kelly | 3¢ |
| Gavin Newsom and Ruben Gallego | 2¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ruben Gallego | 2¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Wes Moore | 2¢ |
| Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer | 1.5¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer | 1¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gretchen Whitmer | 1¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown, and 1 contract trading under a cent is left off. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:54:02 UTC.
The market says 9%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="2028 Democratic Presidential ticket live price"></iframe>
What this market has cost every day since 18 April 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went from 3 to 8, a move of 5 points toward happening.
The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.