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The Overround / Markets / Science and Technology

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
United States 56¢
China 31.1¢
Russia 1.9¢
India 1.1¢
European Space Agency 1.3¢

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:53:40 UTC.

Your call

The market says 56%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

56%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 21 December 2025, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSept United States 54.6 China 29.8 Russia 1.1

Over this window United States went from 43.5 to 54.6, a move of 11 points toward happening.

The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
The New York Times
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Wed, 01 Jan 2031 15:00:00 UTC
Resolution, for the United States contract
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXMOONMAN-31

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