The Overround / Markets / Elections
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| AOC v. JD Vance | 16¢ |
| Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance | 13¢ |
| Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio | 13¢ |
| Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance | 8.7¢ |
| Kamala Harris v. JD Vance | 7.3¢ |
| AOC v. Marco Rubio | 6.5¢ |
| Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio | 6¢ |
| Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio | 2.6¢ |
| Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance | 2.4¢ |
| Andy Beshear v. JD Vance | 1.7¢ |
| Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio | 1.4¢ |
| Josh Shapiro v. Marco Rubio | 1.7¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance | 1.5¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio | 1.6¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown, and 2 contracts trading under a cent are left off. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:51:39 UTC.
The market says 16%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 8 April 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window AOC v. JD Vance went from 6.4 to 14.5, a move of 8.1 points toward happening.
The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.