The Overround / Markets / Elections
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| AOC defeats JD Vance | 11¢ |
| Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance | 12¢ |
| JD Vance defeats AOC | 8¢ |
| Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio | 9¢ |
| JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom | 10¢ |
| Marco Rubio defeats AOC | 9¢ |
| Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance | 9¢ |
| Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance | 7¢ |
| JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris | 7¢ |
| Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance | 6¢ |
| Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio | 5¢ |
| AOC defeats Marco Rubio | 4¢ |
| Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio | 3¢ |
| Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris | 4¢ |
| Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance | 3¢ |
| JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff | 3¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance | 3¢ |
| JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg | 3¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio | 3¢ |
| JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear | 2¢ |
| Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio | 2¢ |
| Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear | 2¢ |
| JD Vance defeats James Talarico | 2¢ |
| James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio | 2¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown, and 1 contract trading under a cent is left off. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:52:50 UTC.
Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 144%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.
The market says 11%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 10 April 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window AOC defeats JD Vance went from 2.5 to 10, a move of 7.5 points toward happening.
Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.