The Overround / Markets / Elections
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| JD Vance and Marco Rubio | 27¢ |
| Marco Rubio and JD Vance | 10¢ |
| JD Vance and Erika Kirk | 5.3¢ |
| JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. | 5.8¢ |
| Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio | 4.3¢ |
| Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin | 3.9¢ |
| JD Vance and Byron Donalds | 2.7¢ |
| JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 3.8¢ |
| JD Vance and Glenn Youngkin | 3¢ |
| Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio | 3.9¢ |
| JD Vance and Elise Stefanik | 2.6¢ |
| Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds | 3¢ |
| JD Vance and Donald Trump | 3.7¢ |
| Marco Rubio and Donald Trump | 3¢ |
| Marco Rubio and Erika Kirk | 2¢ |
| Marco Rubio and Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 2¢ |
| Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. | 2¢ |
| Tucker Carlson and Marco Rubio | 2¢ |
| Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik | 2¢ |
| Donald Trump and Marco Rubio | 2¢ |
| Tucker Carlson and JD Vance | 1.9¢ |
| Ron DeSantis and JD Vance | 1.9¢ |
| Thomas Massie and Marco Rubio | 1¢ |
| Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio | 1¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown, and 1 contract trading under a cent is left off. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:53:41 UTC.
Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 100.1%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.
The market says 27%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="2028 Republican Presidential ticket live price"></iframe>
What this market has cost every day since 18 April 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window JD Vance and Marco Rubio went from 11.5 to 26.5, a move of 15.1 points toward happening.
The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.