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Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
Samuel Alito 57¢
Clarence Thomas 49¢
John Roberts 23¢
Sonia Sotomayor
Amy Coney Barrett
Elena Kagan
Neil Gorsuch
Brett Kavanaugh
Ketanji Brown Jackson

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:50:17 UTC.

Your call

The market says 57%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

57%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 21 December 2025, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSept Samuel Alito 53.5 Clarence Thomas 48 John Roberts 19.5

Over this window Samuel Alito went from 64 to 53.5, a move of 10.5 points away from happening.

The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
Supreme Court
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Sat, 20 Jan 2029 15:00:00 UTC
Resolution, for the Samuel Alito contract
If Samuel Alito resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29

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