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Who will Trump pardon?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
Donald Trump Jr. 66¢
Barron Trump 55¢
Donald Trump 53¢
Eric Trump 55¢
Scott Bessent 50¢
Keonne Rodriguez 49¢
Jared Kushner 48¢
Pete Hegseth 47¢
Bill Hwang 44¢
JD Vance 40¢
Susie Wiles 41¢
Robin Smith 40¢
Prakazrel Michel 40¢
Torence Hatch 39¢
Elizabeth Holmes 38¢
Eric Adams 37¢
Pam Bondi 38¢
Marco Rubio 36¢
Jho Low 37¢
Todd Blanche 35¢
Sam Bankman-Fried 35¢
Steve Bannon 36¢
Tim Leissner 36¢
Ghislaine Maxwell 32¢

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown, and 28 contracts trading under a cent are left off. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:55:30 UTC.

Your call

The market says 66%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

66%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 21 December 2025, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSept Donald Trump Jr. 64 Eric Trump 52

Over this window Donald Trump Jr. went from 51 to 64, a move of 13 points toward happening.

Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
White House, New York Times
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Sun, 21 Jan 2029 15:00:00 UTC
Resolution, for the Donald Trump Jr. contract
If Donald Trump Jr. has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21

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