The Overround / Markets / Politics
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | 66¢ |
| Barron Trump | 55¢ |
| Donald Trump | 53¢ |
| Eric Trump | 55¢ |
| Scott Bessent | 50¢ |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 49¢ |
| Jared Kushner | 48¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | 47¢ |
| Bill Hwang | 44¢ |
| JD Vance | 40¢ |
| Susie Wiles | 41¢ |
| Robin Smith | 40¢ |
| Prakazrel Michel | 40¢ |
| Torence Hatch | 39¢ |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 38¢ |
| Eric Adams | 37¢ |
| Pam Bondi | 38¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 36¢ |
| Jho Low | 37¢ |
| Todd Blanche | 35¢ |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 35¢ |
| Steve Bannon | 36¢ |
| Tim Leissner | 36¢ |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 32¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown, and 28 contracts trading under a cent are left off. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:55:30 UTC.
The market says 66%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 21 December 2025, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window Donald Trump Jr. went from 51 to 64, a move of 13 points toward happening.
Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.