The Overround / Markets / Politics
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Significant decrease | 55¢ |
| No significant difference | 33¢ |
| Significant increase | 9.5¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Mon, 05 Oct 2026 03:20:09 UTC.
The market says 55%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 8 January 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window No significant difference went from 27.5 to 34, a move of 6.5 points toward happening.
Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.