The Overround / Markets / Elections
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa, 2-4% | 37¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 2-4% | 17¢ |
| Gina Hinojosa, 0-2% | 11¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 4-6% | 11¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 6-8% | 11¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 0-2% | 11¢ |
| Gina Hinojosa, 4-6% | 6¢ |
| Gina Hinojosa, ≥6% | 6¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 8-10% | 5¢ |
| Greg Abbott, 10-12% | 4¢ |
| Greg Abbott, ≥12% | 4¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Sun, 25 Oct 2026 02:49:52 UTC.
Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 123%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.
The market says 37%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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