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Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
Paramount 80¢
None before July 2027 19¢
Netflix

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:55:29 UTC.

The overround on this market

Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 101%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.

Your call

The market says 80%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

80%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 21 December 2025, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSept Paramount 79.5 None before July 2 18 Netflix 2.5

Over this window Netflix went from 67.5 to 2.5, a move of 65 points away from happening.

Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
Warner Brothers' official investor relations website or press releases, Warner Brothers' official government filings, Netflix's official investor relations website or press releases, Paramount's official investor relations website or press releases, Netflix's government filings, Paramount's government filings, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, CNBC, The New York Times, The Associated Press, ABC News, BBC News
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Thu, 01 Jul 2027 03:59:00 UTC
Resolution, for the Paramount contract
If qualifying public announcements indicate Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXTAKEOVERACQWB-27JUN30

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