The Overround / Markets / Economics
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Above 447,500 jobs | 97¢ |
| Above 450,000 jobs | 95¢ |
| Above 452,500 jobs | 92¢ |
| Above 455,000 jobs | 64¢ |
| Above 457,500 jobs | 34¢ |
| Above 460,000 jobs | 13¢ |
| Above 462,500 jobs | 5¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 15 Oct 2026 19:40:16 UTC.
The market says 97%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 18 August 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window Above 452,500 jobs went from 76 to 91.5, a move of 15.5 points toward happening.
The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.