The Overround / Disclosure
Short version: some outbound links pay us, ranking ignores that completely, and here is the table.
| Where a link goes | Do we get paid | How much |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Yes | $0.01 per click, and $10 if you open an account and fund it |
| Kalshi | No | nothing, currently |
| Sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel and the rest) | No | nothing |
| Settlement sources and contract documents | No | nothing |
Ranking is by price alone. No venue can pay to move up this board, and if the cheapest price is somewhere that pays us nothing, that is what we print.
This site covers the strange, the contested and the grim, because that is where the interesting prices are. Some of what a regulated exchange lists is genuinely unpleasant: whether a named person dies before a date, whether a war starts, whether an attempt is made on someone's life. Declining to print a number that is already public and already being traded would be squeamishness dressed up as principle, so we print it.
What we do not do is build entertainment out of one. A market on whether a named person comes to harm gets a page, gets charted, and goes into the archive. It never appears in The Ten, never appears in Equally Likely, and is never picked up by anything that posts. Those formats exist to be quick and funny, and there is nothing funny there.
This is enforced in the code rather than left to whoever is editing. The pattern that decides it lives at the top of api/ladder.js, in one place, so it applies every time instead of when someone remembers.
We will get the line wrong occasionally, in both directions. When we do it goes on the corrections page like any other error. And where a market strikes us as genuinely corrosive rather than merely uncomfortable, we say so in plain words on the page itself rather than printing the number with a straight face. Reporting a price is not endorsing the trade.
Most days, money. Roughly half the outbound clicks on this site go to Kalshi or to a sportsbook, and every one of those earns exactly nothing. We could fix that by nudging the ranking, and the whole reason to read this site would disappear with it.
Every outbound link goes through /api/go before it reaches a venue. That exists so the referral codes live in configuration rather than scattered through the page, and so clicks are countable. It does not change where you land or what you pay.
One list, handled by Beehiiv. We do not sell it, rent it, or hand it to a venue. Unsubscribe whenever.
No venue has paid for placement, coverage, or a review, because none is for sale. If that ever changes it will be written here first and labelled on the page it affects.