The Overround / Markets / Politics
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 68¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 44¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 20¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:53:54 UTC.
The market says 68%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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