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The Overround / Markets / Entertainment

Oscar Winner: Best Picture

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
The Odyssey 53¢
The Black Ball 16¢
Dune: Part Three 12¢
Digger
Wild Horse Nine
The Debut
Fjord
Project Hail Mary
Behemoth
Josephine
You Can See Everything

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:52:10 UTC.

The overround on this market

Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 142%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.

Your call

The market says 53%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

53%

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The record

What this market has cost every day since 21 March 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.

0 25 50 75 100 MarAprMayJunJulAugSept The Odyssey 52.5 The Black Ball 15.5 Dune: Part Three 11.5

Over this window The Odyssey went from 17 to 52.5, a move of 35.5 points toward happening.

The other 1 contract in this field is left off the chart rather than drawn in a colour nobody could tell apart; it is all in the table above. Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.

See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Fri, 31 Dec 2027 15:00:00 UTC
Resolution, for the The Odyssey contract
If The Odyssey has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXOSCARPIC-27

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