The Overround / Markets / Politics
Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.
| Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| $0 / No Acquisition | 85¢ |
| $600 billion to $899 billion | 5.4¢ |
| $10 billion to $99 billion | 5¢ |
| $100 billion to $299 billion | 4.9¢ |
| $300 billion to $599 billion | 3.5¢ |
| $1 billion to $9 billion | 2.8¢ |
| $900 billion to $1199 billion | 1.5¢ |
| $1.2 trillion or more | 1.4¢ |
Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:55:51 UTC.
Add up what it costs to back every outcome here and Kalshi's board comes to 109.5%. A fair book sums to 100. The excess is the house's cut, paid by whoever trades, and it is the reason the same opinion costs different amounts in different places. That number is what this site is named after.
The market says 85%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.
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What this market has cost every day since 18 January 2026, taken from the exchange's own published history. The line is the mid price, halfway between what a buyer would pay and a seller would take.
Over this window $0 / No Acquisition went from 57.5 to 84, a move of 26.5 points toward happening.
Kalshi removes a contract from its interface once it settles and Polymarket buries closed events, so this page is the copy that stays put. We also record our own snapshot once a day, independently, because a history published by the house is worth checking against one kept by somebody with no position in it.