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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Live prices from Kalshi, ordered by what the market thinks. These are raw ask prices, what it actually costs to take the position, margin included.

OutcomeKalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028 98¢
Before Jul 1, 2028 98¢
Before Jan 1, 2029 98¢
Before Jul 1, 2027 98¢
Before Nov 1, 2026 98¢
Before Jan 1, 2027 98¢
Before Apr 1, 2027 98¢
Before Oct 1, 2026 97¢

Only outcomes with a live two-sided quote are shown. No Polymarket equivalent was matched with enough confidence to publish, so this page is Kalshi only. Prices as of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:54:02 UTC.

Your call

The market says 98%. It got there by making everyone who disagreed put money behind it. You do not have to, so this is the cheap version of the same question, and the interesting number is how far the two drift apart.

98%

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        style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? live price"></iframe>
See this on Kalshi

What settles this

Settlement source
Federal Government of Germany, German Bundestag, Office of the Federal Chancellor of Germany, Reuters, Associated Press
Contract terms
Kalshi product certification (PDF)
Closes
Thu, 01 Oct 2026 03:59:00 UTC
Resolution, for the Before Jan 1, 2028 contract
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ticker
KXLEAVEMERZ-29JAN01

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